My Complete and Fearless 2017 Oscar Predictions 


Now that the ballots are en route to the 89th Academy Awards, it is time for us to predict who will be the big winners! Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” dominated the nominations with 14 nods but will it shine on Oscar night at the city of stars? I’m predicting that the romance musical will take home 11 awards including Best Picture! The musical will only lose in the actor (sorry Ryan Gosling), original screenplay, and to its own “Audition” in the original song categories.

And you know why “La La Land” will win big? Because when the country is in turmoil, popular culture swings to the opposite way. And the film, with its sweet rose-colored palette and fancy production numbers made us all happy. And Hollywood wants us all happy.

We’ll find out all the happy Oscar winners on Sunday at 5 p.m. Join me on my Facebook page, facebook.com/MannyTheMovieGuy to talk about the Oscars live! We’ll slice and dice the Academy Awards minute-by-minute!

Here’s my complete and final Oscar 2017 predictions:

Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
*** La La Land WILL WIN Expect Damien Chazelle’s ode to Hollywood get the night’s biggest prize! I love the film, it was my favorite movie of the year but truth be told, Academy voters love movies about them!
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight

Best Actor
*** Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea WILL WIN He gave the year’s most nuanced performance but let me just warn you, Denzel Washington could still pull a big surprise!

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
*** Emma Stone, La La Land WILL WIN Once upon a time, this award belonged to “Jackie’s” Natalie Portman but the film failed to find an audience and now, Isabelle Huppert is Stone’s biggest competition. But I still feel that the night will belong to her and “La La Land” just witness her “Audition” performance!
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor
*** Mahershala Ali, Moonlight WILL WIN Mahershala Ali’s screen time in “Moonlight” may be brief, but his performance can be felt all the way to the end. That’s a testament of great acting!

Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
*** Viola Davis, Fences WILL WIN She didn’t win an Oscar for either “Doubt” or “The Help,” but third time’s a charm for Viola! And she gives great acceptance speeches! I can’t wait!

Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Directing
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
*** Damien Chazelle, La La Land WILL WIN Damien Chazelle not only made one of the most memorable films of 2016, he also is the recipient of the Directors Guild Award! That’s a great sign!
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Film Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell Or High Water
*** La La Land WILL WIN Besides wowing us with the complicated-to-edit he said/she said points of view, the film already won the American Cinema Editors (ACE) EDDIE Award for Best Edited Feature Film (Comedy). That “comedy” may throw the voters off and give the award to “Arrival” instead which also won an EDDIE Award this time for “drama.”
Moonlight

Foreign Language Film
Land Of Mine
A Man Called Ove
*** The Salesman WILL WIN While I admire the offbeat humor of Germany's "Toni Erdmann," I'm thinking Iran's "The Salesman" will win! Writer/director Asghar Farhadi won an Oscar before for 2011’s "A Separation" plus "The Salesman" took home the Best Actor and Screenplay awards at Cannes, and with Donald Trump's Muslim ban? The film is now enjoying frontrunner status. Farhadi refuses to cross the border for the Oscars.
Tanna
Toni Erdmannn

Original Score
Jackie
*** La La Land WILL WIN If a musical film does not win this category, the city of stars will cry!
Lion
Moonlight
Passenger

Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Hail, Caesar
*** La La Land WILL WIN That candy-colored palette still haunts me in my dreams! And, it was the big winner at the Art Directors Guild Award! So there!
Passengers

Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
*** The Jungle Book WILL WIN Close your eyes and imagine Jon Favreau’s “The Jungle Book.” If you’re like me, you’ll remember the dazzling visuals of the movie! The seamless transition between CGI and live action! And that’s why this film will win! But, I’m very happy that Laika’s “Kubo and the Two Strings” is nominated in this category and not just in the animated section. Bravo!
Kubo And The Two Strings

Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
*** Moonlight WILL WIN First of all, if you haven’t seen this film yet, shame on you! Please watch it and you will be touched by an affecting urban story that will simultaneously pierce and tickle your heart! It is that good! It already won a Writers Guild Award for Original Screenplay (Barry Jenkins based the script on an unproduced 2003 play, different rules for WGA and the Academy). Watch out for fellow WGA winner “Arrival” to possibly take the crown. But don’t underestimate “Hidden Figures” as well. Audiences love it!

Original Screenplay
Hell Or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
*** Manchester By The Sea WILL WIN Kenneth Lonergan wrote a screenplay that is rich in dialogue and characters. With both WGA winners duking it out in the adapted screenplay category, this is all for “Manchester By the Sea.” Yes, I love “La La Land” but its screenplay is not one of its strongest tunes!
20th Century Women

Animated Feature Film

Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
My Life As A Zuccini
The Red Turtle
*** Zootopia WILL WIN Honestly, I’d rather have “Kubo and the Two Strings” win this category but then, look at Disney’s “Zootopia” and see how politically smart it is! Plus, who can forget the DMV sloths?

Cinematography

Arrival
*** La La Land WILL WIN Just look at the opening scene of the film! That alone took a lot of work and coordination. And then picture the movie’s “look” and perhaps, you’ll agree that it’s this year’s best-shot film?
Moonlight
Lion
Silence

Costume Design

Allied
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
*** La La Land WILL WIN I would have loved “Jackie” or “Fantastic Beasts” to win but neither showed up at the Costume Designers Guild Awards – “Doctor Strange” beat “Fantastic Beasts” in the Fantasy Film category while “Hidden Figures” won Period Film – so I’m putting my money on the Best Picture contender!

Documentary Feature

Fire At Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life Animated
*** OJ: Made In America WILL WIN and should win! It’s a shame that “Weiner” did not make the cut!
13th

Documentary Short Subject

Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
*** The White Helmets WILL WIN Orlando von Einsiedel's timely “The White Helmets” is the frontrunner in this category and it’s about the Syrian Civil Defense – a group of people who help rescue bombing survivors!

Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
*** Star Trek Beyond WILL WIN The sci-fi flick already won at the Make-Up and Hair Stylists Guild Awards so did “Suicide Squad.” But then again, “Star Trek Beyond” is a little better than “Squad” so it will live long and prosper with great makeup and hairstyle!
Suicide Squad

Original Song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop The Feeling, Trolls
*** City Of Stars, La La Land WILL WIN There’s a strong chance that “La La Land” may split the vote and give Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “Moana” anthem the big win BUT, like I said earlier, Hollywood loves movies about them especially songs about them!
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana

Animated Short Film
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
*** Piper WILL WIN I loved “Piper” better than the full-feature film that followed it, “Finding Dory.” From its pristine animation to its heartfelt story about a sanderling trying to survive the big waves while searching for food, “Piper” is a smart film that looks and feels like a Disney Earth segment!

Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
*** Silent Nights WILL WIN This short from director Aske Bang and producer Kim Magnusson is considered the frontrunner. It’s a drama about a Danish girl and her Ghanaian immigrant boyfriend. Magnusson has been nominated six times and won twice for 1999’s “Brothers” and 2013’s “Helium.” That’s a good sign!
Sing
Timecode

Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
*** La La Land WILL WIN Hey, I’m going for Rah Rah La La but there’s a strong chance that Mel Gibson’s “Hacksaw Ridge” may win this category. But here’s the rule of thumb, this category belongs to either the action genre or musicals. And with “La La Land’s” strong 14 nods, this may just be little icing on the cake. Oh and yeah, the Cinema Audio Society chose “La La Land” over “Hacksaw Ridge.”
Sully

Sound Mixing

Arrival
Hacksaw
*** La La Land WILL WIN If we’re going to go with the shared notion that “La La Land” will win majority of the awards, then it should also win this category. Previous winners with many nominations and wins before (“Ben Hur,” “Titanic,” “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”) all won this category. But then again, they’re mostly action films except from “Titanic” which was part drama and part giant ship sinking action!
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi



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Prepare for the Oscars! See Your 2016-2017 Awards Season Guide! All the Winners and Nominees in One Place! 


The Academy Awards is this Sunday and if you're like me, it's my Super Bowl! So, in order to make the most accurate predictions, I check out all the various guild awards and critics groups winners and then I still vote with my heart. But at least, I'm informed!

Here's the most current winners list except for the Independent Spirit Awards which will be handing out their kudos this Saturday per tradition, the night before the Oscars!

Here's your guide to Awards Season 2016/2017.

Academy Awards -- The 2016 Oscars!

ACE Eddie Awards -- Best Editing
African-American Film Critics
Alliance of Women Film Journalists -- EDA Awards
American Film Institute
American Society of Cinematographers
Annie Awards
Art Directors Guild Awards
Austin Film Critics Association
Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts
Boston Online Film Critics Association
Boston Society of Film Critics
British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA)
British Independent Film Awards
Chicago Film Critics Association
Cinema Audio Society
Cinema Eye Honors
Costume Designers Guild
Critics' Choice Awards
Dallas Fort-Worth Film Critics Association
Detroit Film Critics Society
Directors Guild of America
Dorian Awards (Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association)
Film Comment Poll
Florida Film Critics Circle
Golden Globe Awards
Gotham Awards
Houston Film Critics Society
Independent Spirit Awards
Indiana Film Journalists Association
International Cinephile Society
International Documentary Association (IDA)
Kansas City Film Critics' Circle
Las Vegas Film Critics Society
London Film Critics' Circle
Los Angeles Film Critics Association
Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards
National Board of Review
NAACP Image Awards
National Society of Film Critics
New York Film Critics Circle
New York Film Critics Online
Online Film Critics Society
Phoenix Film Critics Society
Producers Guild of America
San Diego Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics
Satellite Awards
Screen Actors Guild Awards
Southeast Film Critics Association
St. Louis Gateway Film Critics Association
Toronto Film Critics Association
USC Scripter Awards (Best Adapted Screenplay)
Utah Film Critics Society
VES Awards (Visual Effects)
Washington DC Area Film Critics Association
Writers Guild Awards

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Your Complete 2017 Oscar Nominations! "La La Land" Gets 14 Nods! 


The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences has announced the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards! For the first time ever, the Academy chose to pretape the nominations instead of announcing them live from their headquarters at the Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. Jennifer Hudson, Brie Larson, Emmanuel Lubezki, Demián Bichir, Jason Reitman and Ken Watanabe joined Academy president Cheryl Boone Isaacs in presenting the 24 categories.

And as predicted, Damien Chazelle's "La La Land" received the most nominations, a total of 14 nods including Best Picture, actor for Ryan Gosling, and actress for Emma Stone.

The Oscars will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel live from the Dolby Theatre at Hollywood & Highland on Sunday, Feb. 26th at 5:30 p.m. PT!

And the nominees of the 89th Academy Awards are:

Best Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By The Sea
Moonlight

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell Or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester By The Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester By The Sea

Directing
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Film Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell Or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

Foreign Language Film
Land Of Mine
A Man Called Ove
The Salesman
Tanna
Toni Erdmannn

Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passenger

Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts
Hail, Caesar
La La Land
Passengers

Visual Effects
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
The Jungle Book
Kubo And The Two Strings

Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Original Screenplay
Hell Or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester By The Sea
20th Century Women

Animated Feature Film
Kubo And The Two Strings
Moana
My Life As A Zuccini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Cinematography

Arrival
La La Land
Moonlight
Lion
Silence

Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Documentary Feature
Fire At Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life Animated
OJ: Made In America
13th

Documentary Short Subject

Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Original Song
Audition, La La Land
Can’t Stop The Feeling, Trolls
City Of Stars, La La Land
The Empty Chair, Jim: The James Foley Story
How Far I’ll Go, Moana

Animated Short Film

Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Live Action Short Film
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

Sound Mixing
Arrival
Hacksaw
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

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Director Fisher Stevens Talks About Debbie Reynolds, Carrie Fisher in "Bright Lights" 


The relationship of the unsinkable mother/daughter duo, Debbie Reynolds and Carrie Fisher, is explored in the new HBO documentary “Bright Lights.” The film made its Palm Springs International Film Festival debut and I was there to talk to editor Sheila Sharazi and co-director Fisher Stevens (“The Cove”).



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"Moonlight" Tops Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Awards 


The Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association (GALECA), of which I'm a proud voting member, has revealed its nominees for the best in film and television of 2016. Barry Jenkins' "Moonlight" led the pack with 7 nods followed by Damien Chazelle's "La La Land" with 6. Winners will be announced on Thursday, January 26.

COMPLETE LIST OF GALECA 2016/17 DORIAN AWARDS NOMINEES:

Note: Categories with more than five nominees involved a tie)

Film of the Year

Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

La La Land (Summit/Lionsgate)

Manchester by the Sea (Roadside/Amazon Studios)

Moonlight (A24)

20th Century Women (A24)

Director of the Year

(Film or Television)


Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (A24)

Pablo Larraín, Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By the Sea (Roadside/Amazon Studios)

Park Chan-wook, The Handmaiden (Amazon Studios)

Damien Chazelle, La La Land (Summit/Lionsgate)

Film Performance of the Year — Actress

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (A24)

Viola Davis, Fences (Paramount)

Isabelle Huppert, Elle (Sony Classics)

Emma Stone, La La Land (Summit/Lionsgate)

Natalie Portman, Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

Film Performance of the Year — Actor


Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (Roadside/Amazon Studios)

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (A24)

Ryan Gosling, La La Land (Summit/Lionsgate)

Trevante Rhodes, Moonlight (A24)

Denzel Washington, Fences (Paramount)

LGBTQ Film of the Year

Being 17 (Strand)

Closet Monster (Strand)

Moonlight (A24)

Other People (Vertical)

The Handmaiden (Amazon Studios)

Foreign Language Film of the Year


Elle (Sony Classics)

Neruda (The Orchard)

The Handmaiden (Amazon Studios)

Things to Come (Sundance Selects)

Toni Erdmann (Sony Pictures Classics)

Screenplay of the Year

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight (A24)

Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Lobster (A24)

Damien Chazelle, La La Land (Summit/Lionsgate)

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea (Roadside/Amazon Studios)

Mike Mills, 20th Century Women (A24)

Documentary of the Year

(theatrical release, TV airing or DVD release)


I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)

O.J. Made in America (ESPN Films)

13th (Netflix)

Tickled (Magnolia)

Weiner (Netflix)

Visually Striking Film of the Year

Arrival (Paramount)

Jackie (Fox Searchlight)

La La Land (Lionsgate)

Moonlight (A24)

The Handmaiden (Amazon Studios)

Unsung Film of the Year


American Honey (A24)

Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)

Christine (The Orchard)

Other People (Vertical)

Sing Street (The Weinstein Company)

Campy Film of the Year

Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie (Fox Searchlight)

King Cobra (IFC Midnight)

Nocturnal Animals (Focus Features)

The Dressmaker (Broadgreen/Amazon Studios)

The Neon Demon (Broadgreen/Amazon Studios)

TV Drama of the Year

Black Mirror (Netflix)

Game of Thrones (HBO)

Stranger Things (Netflix)

The Crown (Netflix)

The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)

Westworld (HBO)

TV Comedy of the Year

Atlanta (FX)

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend (CW)

Insecure (HBO)

Transparent (Amazon)

Veep (FX)

TV Performance of the Year — Actor

Riz Ahmed, The Night Of (HBO)

Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson (FX)

Donald Glover, Atlanta (FX)

Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent (Amazon)

Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson (FX)

TV Performance of the Year — Actress


Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)

Thandie Newton, Westworld (HBO)

Sarah Paulson, American Crime Story: The People V. O.J. Simpson (FX)

Winona Ryder, Stranger Things (Netflix)

TV Current Affairs Show of the Year

Anderson Cooper 360 (CNN)

Full Frontal with Samantha Bee (TBS)

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

The Rachel Maddow Show (MSNBC)

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

TV Musical Performance of the Year

Beyonce, "Lemonade," MTV Video Music Awards (MTV)

Kelly Clarkson, "Piece by Piece," American Idol (Fox)

Lady Gaga - "Til It Happens to You," The 88th Academy Awards (ABC)

Jennifer Hudson, "I Know Where I've Been," Hairspray Live! (NBC)

Kate McKinnon "Hallelujah,” Saturday Night Live (NBC)

LGBTQ TV Show of the Year

Looking: The Movie (HBO)

Orange Is the New Black (Netflix)

RuPaul’s Drag Race All-Stars (Logo)

The Real O'Neals (ABC)

Transparent (Amazon)

Unsung TV Show of the Year

Fleabag (Amazon)

Lady Dynamite (Netflix)

London Spy (BBC America)

Please Like Me (Pivot)

The Real O'Neals (ABC)

Campy TV Show of the Year

Finding Prince Charming (Logo)

Fuller House (Netflix)

Hairspray Live! (NBC)

RuPaul’s Drag Race All-Stars (Logo)

Scream Queens (Fox)

The Rocky Horror Picture Show (Fox)

We’re Wilde About You! Rising Star of the Year

Millie Bobby Brown

Lucas Hedges

Connor Jessup

Ruth Negga

Trevante Rhodes

Wilde Wit of the Year

(honoring a performer, writer or commentator whose observations both challenge and amuse)


Samantha Bee

Carrie Fisher

Bill Maher

Kate McKinnon

John Oliver

Wilde Artist of the Year

(honoring a truly groundbreaking force in the fields of film, theater and/or television)


Beyonce

Viola Davis

Barry Jenkins

Kate McKinnon

Lin-Manuel Miranda

Timeless Star

(to an actor or performer whose exemplary career is marked by character, wisdom and wit)


John Waters

GALECA’S MISSION


GALECA, an established 501 C-6 nonprofit, aims to generate camaraderie in an unsettling media environment, champion constructive film and TV criticism and elevate entertainment journalism as a whole. Via panels, screenings, events and its occasional “Ten Best" lists, GALECA also strives to remind the world that the LGBTQ-munity has a significant history of helping improve pop culture at large. After all, how would the world fare without knowing what's campy?

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